10-10-5

The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has just completed the distribution of preferences for the recent State election (they had to wait ten days after polling day for all postal votes to come in, then began the final counting yesterday morning), and the expected result has materialized: each of the five electorates has returned two Labor, two Liberal and a Green, giving a total of 10 Labor, 10 Liberal and 5 Green Members of the House of Assembly.  The glories of our Hare-Clark system of voting!

An interesting aside: the Electoral Commission has posted online the first preferences figures for each polling place, and Trevallyn (where I cast my vote) turns out to be one of the very Greenest suburbs of Launceston: 39% voted for the Greens first, compared to 41% for the Liberals and only 19% for Labor.  The Statewide result was quite different, basically reversing the percentages gained by Labor and Green!

Premier Bartlett, having decisively lost the election, went to see the Governor to-day, and doubtless will again next Wednesday (after the official declaration of the poll); though Labor leader, Bartlett has repeated that the party gaining the most votes ought assume government; as the Liberals outpolled Labor, and their leader, Will Hodgman, has said from the conclusion of the poll onward that he and his Liberals ought take office in Labor's stead, I expect that His Excellency will first receive Bartlett's resignation, then send for Hodgman to offer him Her Majesty's commission to form a government with himself as Premier.

How unwelcome a prospect for the Prime Minister of Australia, to have another Liberal Premier showing up within a few weeks' time, just when Rudd is trying to get all the States to agree to his proposed federal takeover of public hospitals...  I can't quite see Hodgman agreeing to forgo tax revenue and hand over further power to Canberra.  Good!  A do like a poke in the eye for proponents of ever-larger bureaucracies.

Minority Government again... given the incompetence and deplorable goings-on under Labor over its recent rule, the electorate has signalled that it doesn't want Labor – but isn't quite sure what it wants.  The three parties in the House will just have to muddle along, taking each vote as it comes, with the Liberals always under close criticism and scrutiny, having to justify each and every policy they propose, compromising if need be to get legislation passed.  I must say, I think that's a good thing.  The quality of governance has declined of late, and a salutary check on the executive arm will be the inability to command the legislature.

Apparently Premier-elect Hodgman wants the Governor to summon the new Parliament within the month (not waiting for the upcoming Legislative Council elections), so as to test his support on the floor of the House.  It reminds me of 1989, when Premier Gray tried to hold onto power despite losing his Parliamentary majority, but lost the inevitable no-confidence motion.  (That was when a businessman attempted to bribe one of the MHA's to cross the floor, but instead himself went to jail for his wicked crime against democracy.)

A closely related issue: with 25 members, to be split three ways for the foreseeable future, the House is just too small – talk about the Senate of Lilliput!  It was inappropriate enough back in 1989 when Field ran a minority Government with just 13 MHA's (the Greens on the crossbenches supported it, sort of); now we will have the silly spectacle of a minority Government with only 10 members – 9 Ministers, and only one on the backbench.  At the least we need to go back to the old House of 35 members (7 per electorate), and I would wish for 45 (9 per electorate), though that's most unlikely outside my febrile imagination.

[UPDATE: Quite unexpectedly, the Greens signalled on the 8th of April that they would lean toward supporting a minority Labor government, to the understandable ire of Hodgman, who'd only the day before been beaming smiles, thinking he'd be called to Government House to be sworn in as Premier...  instead, the Governor decided that the best constitutional principles required him to keep Labor on, as Labor has the prospect of forming a stable government, whereas the Liberals (refusing to negotiate with the Greens, and unable to rely on Labor) have less chance of doing so.  Hence, Bartlett was retained, had his commission as Premier renewed on the 13th of April, and is presently negotiating with the Greens...]

As we now prepare to mark Good Friday and Easter Sunday, we ought spare a prayer for our elected representatives...  Here is the prayer the Speaker reads at the start of each day's session:

“Almighty God, we humbly beseech Thee to vouchsafe Thy blessing upon this Parliament.  Direct and prosper our deliberations to the advancement of Thy glory and the true welfare of the people of Tasmania. 

“Our Father, which art in Heaven; Hallowed be Thy name.  Thy kingdom come.  Thy will be done in earth as it is in Heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread.  And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive them who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation; but deliver us from evil.  For Thine is the kingdom, and the power, and the glory, for ever and ever.  Amen.”

Casting my Vote

Parliament House, Hobart

Most embarrassingly, I missed out on my chance to vote in the last State election – in Western Australia, where I was resident at the time – since I had moved from one Perth suburb to another, forgetting to change my voter registration, and therefore was not on the electoral roll for the correct electorate.  It was even more embarrassing to receive the official letter asking why I had not voted, and demanding I pay a fine (voting being compulsory in State and Federal elections) if I couldn't explain why: I had to fill in a form telling of my negligence, which put paid to the fine, but left me annoyed and promising to do better in the future.  In any case, the W.A. election went as I had hoped, chucking out the incompetents in Government, and returning a hung Parliament, forcing the politicians to cooperate together.

To-day, therefore (having made sure I was properly registered at the outset of the election campaign), I went along just before noon to the nearest polling place, at Trevallyn Primary School, where I was educated.  I still remember most of the school song: "Trevallyn! Our goals are high, as year by year proceeds; As days pass by, we always try to live by worthy deeds.  From kindergarten to grade six we live the golden rule, Helping others through each day to build a glorious school."

The process was relaxed and quick: from parking my car to getting back into it took scarcely five minutes.  I walked up along the path, thinking how the bushes had grown, and how low the fence now looked, then turned into the courtyard (evidently the school tuckshop is still in the same place), before entering a building erected since my time at school there (where it is was a wall and path down to the quadrangle) – it housed the music room, for to-day separated into two parts by barriers (the musical instruments could be seen over the top).

There were half-a-dozen waiting in line when I entered, with about the same number voting, attended to by eight persons working for the Australian Electoral Commission.  Along the wall were eleven small booths at which to fill out the ballot paper.  To the left as one entered were three men to whom one went first – they checked one's name off on the electoral roll (using laptop computers) and then gave out the ballot paper.  At the entrance and exit were two other employees assisting.  To the right was a table at which several other employees were assisting a lady, I conjecture she was casting a ballot for another electorate or something like that.

Very soon I was filling in mine, numbering the candidates in order of my preference from 1 to 20 (at the least, one is required to number the first five); as the secret ballot was invented in Australia, and was first known as "the Australian ballot", I will keep my choice to myself: secretum meum mihi.

Popping the ballot into the ballot box, that was it, and I walked out.

Polls (having opened at 8 am) close at 6 pm, and there will be coverage of the count to-night on TV: for election results, see the ABC's excellent coverage online.

The newspaper informs me that the initial count of first preferences will be 90% complete by late this evening, and final distribution of preferences will be done slightly faster than in the past, with the successful election of all 25 Members of the House of Assembly to be announced by Thursday the 1st of April.  As it is, the outgoing Labor Government has announced that, with a hung Parliament expected, if the Opposition Liberals garner more seats or first preference votes than Labor, Premier Bartlett will resign and advise the Governor to appoint Will Hodgmann as the new Premier.  Only time will tell...

At least a nasty organization called Emily's List (which funds pro-choice women candidates) did me a service, by listing online those candidates it supports: I put them firmly last.  No abortion, thank you!

State Election Musings

Tasmania operates its own advanced, home-grown system of proportional representation, the Hare-Clark method, whereby each of the five Lower House electorates returns five members (formerly seven).  Without going into the intricate and admirable details, each person votes by numbering all the candidates from one to whatever, thus indicating his preferences in due order.  

In simple terms, a candidate is elected if he gain a quota (16.66% of the votes cast), and any surplus votes above this quota are redistributed to the others, according to the next preference indicated; first he who has the most votes above the quota has his extra votes redistributed, whilst being declared elected; whoever has the most votes above the quota once this has been done is next declared elected, and his surplus votes likewise distributed; this continues until no one has a quota – when the candidate with the least votes is eliminated, and his votes redistributed to others according to the preferences expressed; if any now have a quota, the process continues as before; if none do, then the candidate with the next-smallest number of votes for him is likewise eliminated, and so on.  Did I say, simple?

It usually takes a fortnight to count the votes and then to carefully perform the distribution of them to ascertain who has been elected!  

Typically, the most well-known candidates win well over a quota, and lesser candidates from their own party typically gain the second or third preferences from the surplus votes.

There is even an exquisite, nice adjustment called the Robson rotating ballot: to stymie the donkey vote (when a fool, unable to understand the system, stupidly numbers the ballot straight down), different ballots are printed with the candidates' names in different order.

The system avoids the backroom machinations that plague the party-list system, which binds the voter to vote for a party, not individual candidates: if I wish, I can vote for a Liberal first, then a Green second (like Hell!), then a Labor third, or any other combination I like.

All this being said, the House of Assembly nowadays has too few members - only 25! - whereas up to a decade or so ago it had 35 (the exact number had fluctuated since colonial days from 30 to a high of 38, before the Hare-Clark system was fully introduced a hundred years ago.)

In Tasmania, we have gone from the two-party system (Labor and Liberal) of old, to an unstable three-party system (Green, Labor and Liberal) over the past thirty years.  A shameless late-night sitting of Parliament in 1998 resulted in Labor and Liberal (always enemies) ganging up against the Greens, by reducing the number of members of the House, reducing the number elected in each electorate from seven to five, and thus increasing the quota each needed from 12.5% to 16.66% – they thought the Greens would be unable to gain enough votes to pass that threshold, but in fact they have, as their vote has continued to grow over time.  Hence, even when one party has a majority in the House (for minority governments are now common), it only has perhaps 13 members, notoriously not enough to provide sufficient Ministers of decent quality.

Allegedly the Labor Party is considering changing the model somewhat, by dividing the State into seven electorates of five each, thus returning the Lower House to its traditional 35 members.  I would favour this as a minimal reform in the right direction.

My own modest proposal (and I have appeared before a Parliamentary Inquiry into these matters some years back, to testify to what would benefit our State), would be to remain with the present five electorates (since Tasmania has employed these same divisions for State and Federal elections for several generations now, as the Constitution entitles Tasmania to have five M.P.'s in the Commonwealth Parliament), but to return to electing seven, or even to go beyond and elect nine members per electorate – thus increasing the House to 35 or even 45 members.  

Why?  Because the more members per electorate, the closer to an ideal form of proportional representation, and therefore the more democratic the system.  We're not ignorant yokels content with a first-past-the-post simpleton system; rather, Tasmanians have been using a very advanced electoral system for a century, and ought continue to perfect it, not diminish its proportionality.

I am aware that Labor and the Greens support social engineering increasingly antithetical to traditional morality, but democracy means we get a reflection of popular mores, alas; we get what we deserve.

(By the way, the Upper House, the Legislative Council – which can reject any legislation, even financial bills, and can never be overruled nor ever dissolved – has but 15 members, all titled The Honourable, each elected from a single-member electorate in the usual Australian manner by Single Transferable Vote, our improvement on the plurality system.  It had 19 until recent redistributions; but 15 was the original number.  Every year, three electorates have an election, such that the Council's composition is continually changing, but within an overall continuity.  Legislative Councillors are traditionally independent of party affiliation, though some are Labor men.  The Council was traditionally a potent and conservative House of Review, but has become far less effective in recent years, alas.)

What to expect of the upcoming election, to descend to the level of practice from that of theory?

Well, Labor has been in government for twelve years, and I certainly believe it is time for a change, especially given all manner of major and minor scandals and goings-on that ill-beseem Her Majesty's Government in right of Tasmania.  As to whether the Liberals can gain a majority, frankly I doubt it (though I desire it); the Greens I suspect will sit on the cross-benches and hold the balance of power (damn).  But I actually think the worst thing is a majority government, and the checks and balances of an independent Upper House, and a divided Lower House, should actually serve to keep the State from overstepping its due functions.

At present, since the last election in 2006, there are 14 Labor members (who form the Government), 7 Liberals (Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition) and 4 Greens.  As to the near future, well, reputable opinion polling indicates that the Liberals are ahead of Labor; for the first time ever, the Greens are neck-and-neck with Labor – it would be shocking but perhaps logical if the left continues its generational shift from Labor to Green, while the right continues Liberal, and those in the middle split three ways.  Those uncertain how to vote still number a fifth of those polled!

Could we end up with the House of Assembly divided into 10 Liberals (Will Hodgman as Premier; what a pity his father has just retired from Parliament after decades, missing out on being in his son's ministry), 7 Greens, and 8 Labor MHA's?

In any case, we all go to vote (voting is compulsory, just as it should be) on Saturday the 20th of March, and with luck a new Premier and Ministers will be sworn in by the Governor just after Easter – though possibly, if there is no clear winner, we may have to wait till Parliament is opened, and the matter is decided by a vote of no confidence on the floor of the House.  Since neither Labor nor Liberal will ever enter coalition with the Greens, let alone with each other, it is possible that, if no Premier able to command the House can be found, we'll have to go to the polls again...